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GlossaryStatistics and interpretation

Clearance rate

Clearance rate compares qualifying clearances with reported offenses under a stated method. Earlier-year cases can affect the percentage, even above 100%.

A clearance rate is the percentage of reported offenses represented by qualifying clearances under a specified statistical method. A common annual measure divides offenses cleared during the year by offenses reported during that year. Because some clearances concern earlier offenses, it is not necessarily the percentage of that year's new cases that were solved.

State the formula and counting unit

For an annual offense-based measure:

Clearance rate = qualifying offenses cleared during the period ÷ qualifying offenses reported during the period × 100.

The numerator must follow the source's clearance criteria. The FBI distinguishes arrest clearance from exceptional clearance and separates both from administrative case closure. A local count of “closed cases” is therefore not automatically a valid substitute. FBI clearance explanation.

The denominator must use the same agency coverage and offense categories. Dividing all case closures by a narrower violent-crime count, for example, would produce a number with no coherent meaning.

Example

Hypothetical example: A department reports 50 qualifying burglary offenses during a year and records 15 qualifying burglary clearances during that year. Its annual clearance rate is 15 ÷ 50 × 100 = 30 percent.

Five of the 15 clearances concern burglaries reported in earlier years. The annual percentage therefore does not say that 15 of the 50 new burglaries were cleared. To answer that question, a different measure would follow the same group of newly reported offenses and track their outcomes through a stated follow-up date.

An annual rate can even exceed 100 percent. If 12 qualifying offenses are cleared during a year in which only 10 are newly reported, the ratio is 120 percent. Earlier-year clearances can explain that result; it does not mean an individual offense was solved more than once.

Common confusion

Clearance rate versus conviction rate: Clearances concern law-enforcement reporting criteria. Convictions concern court outcomes. Their numerators, denominators, and timing differ.

Offenses versus arrested people: One arrested person can be associated with several clearances, while multiple arrests can relate to one incident. A count of arrested people should not replace a count of qualifying clearances.

Annual activity versus a fixed group of cases: An annual ratio compares two flows recorded during the period. A cohort measure follows the same incidents from report to outcome. The two can legitimately differ.

NIBRS requires another counting check

The FBI's 2025.0 NIBRS manual explains that agencies clear incidents, with the first associated arrestee segment clearing the incident. Published offense-based statistics can summarize that information at a different level. A raw file must therefore be interpreted through the release's counting method before calculating an offense clearance rate. FBI manual, section 3.4.

Similarly, determine whether arrest and exceptional clearances are combined or shown separately. A change in their mix can affect interpretation even when the overall rate remains unchanged.

Reading a trend

Check reporting coverage, offense mix, and the treatment of prior-year events. A department can record substantial progress on older investigations without a matching increase in clearances of new cases. Small denominators can also create large percentage swings.

If no qualifying offenses were reported, division by zero does not produce a meaningful percentage. The source should explain how it presents that situation. Preserve “not calculable” or the documented label rather than silently replacing it with zero percent.

Sources