How to Read Crime Statistics Without Being Misled

Why Crime Numbers Are Tricky

Crime statistics are some of the most frequently cited — and most frequently misunderstood — numbers in public life. Headlines scream about spikes and surges. Politicians cite drops and records. And most of the time, the numbers don't mean what people think they mean.

This guide will help you read crime data critically, whether from Civic Informer, the FBI, your local police department, or a news article.

Counts vs. Rates

The most basic distinction is between counts (raw numbers) and rates (numbers adjusted for population). A city with 500 burglaries and 100,000 residents has a very different problem than one with 500 burglaries and 1,000,000 residents. Rates are usually expressed as incidents per 100,000 residents per year.

Reported vs. Actual Crime

All crime statistics measure reported crime, not actual crime. The gap — the dark figure of crime — varies by offense type. Property crimes might be reported 50% of the time. Sexual assault might be reported 20-30%. Homicide is nearly 100%.

Year-Over-Year vs. Month-Over-Month

Crime has strong seasonal patterns. Comparing January to July is meaningless because summer always runs higher. Year-over-year comparisons (this January vs. last January) are far more informative.

Small Numbers, Big Percentages

If a town had 1 homicide last year and 2 this year, that's a '100% increase in homicides' — technically true but deeply misleading. Always check base numbers behind any percentage claim.

What Good Crime Reporting Looks Like

• Shows rates and counts
• Compares same time period year-over-year
• Acknowledges limitations
• Uses rolling averages rather than snapshots
• Provides context for what numbers include and exclude

See our live data in action on any city's daily and weekly reports.